the odds

Traders put this at 45%. That is 16.0 points up over the last day, including a -1.0-point move in the last hour. $32 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The move higher comes alongside fresh reporting that “Oil Price Today: WTI Gains 6.5% as US Crude Inventories Drop 8.6 Million Barrels, Brent Tops $105.” The Economic Times is also reporting “Brentcrude oil prices hit $110 for first time since May as Iran attacks continue, Ukraine eyes Russia energy infra.”

Traders put this at 28%. That is 3.0 points down over the last day, including a -1.0-point move in the last hour. $194 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The move lower comes alongside fresh reporting that “Arab-led parties could decide the Israeli election, if anyone would partner with them.” Al Jazeera is also reporting “In Israel, Netanyahu’s ultimate legacy is the opposition he has forged.”

Traders put this at 91%. The price has been broadly steady over the last day. $284 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The price is steady, but the live news backdrop is “Majority of Americans Expect Democrats to Win Control of House; Public Is Split on Senate.” PBS is also reporting “Here's what's on House Democrats' agenda if they sweep to power in midterm elections.”

Traders put this at 9%. The price has been broadly steady over the last day. $264 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The price is steady, but the live news backdrop is “Tracking Competitive Races in the House and Senate.” EL PAÍS English is also reporting “The midterms in maps: A guide to the key Senate, House and governor races.”

Traders put this at 82%. The price has been broadly steady over the last day. $422 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The price is steady, but the live news backdrop is “Ships in Strait of Hormuz still face "indiscriminate attacks," maritime monitor warns.” Critical Threats is also reporting “Iran Update, October 14, 2026.”

Traders put this at 87%. The price has been broadly steady over the last day. $294 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The price is steady, but the live news backdrop is “Analysis: Everyone expects the Fed to hold rates in October. Kevin Warsh could surprise us all.” PBS is also reporting “Fed chair Warsh says price stability is key but shies away from signals about rates.”

Traders put this at 6%. That is 1.0 points up over the last day, including a -1.0-point move in the last hour. $171 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The move higher comes alongside fresh reporting that “On Our Radar.” CBS News is also reporting “Ships in Strait of Hormuz still face "indiscriminate attacks," maritime monitor warns.”

Traders put this at 91%. That is 3.6 points down over the last day. $242 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The move lower comes alongside fresh reporting that “Trump says 'we're blowing up the whole country' if no Iran deal is reached in 48 hours - ABC News.” News From The States is also reporting “White House discloses outline of deal to end Iran war, open Strait of Hormuz.”

Traders put this at 0.1%. The price has been broadly steady over the last day. $483 thousand traded in 24 hours.

The market has not materially repriced in the last day. Polling, endorsements and candidate or coalition news are the likely catalysts.